For the past two months, Iran has been rocked by one of the largest popular protests in its recent history. It all started with the arrest and death of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, for wearing an improper hijab, a headcover, while visiting Tehran from her hometown of Saqqez, in Kurdistan, Iran. Since then, hundreds of thousands have taken to the streets all over Iran, defying the regime of the mullahs. Celebrities and athletes, in Iran and around the world, have shown support for the protesters by cutting a crop of their hair or mimicking the gesture.
Since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and the chaotic years that immediately followed, demonstrations have been common across the country. Most have focused on limited, local issues rather than nationwide political change, such as farmers upset about the drying up of the country’s water supplies, teachers asking for higher salaries, or pensioners angry after losing their savings.
The largest protest in recent history took place in 2009-10, during the so-called Persian Spring, when the Iranian Green Movement demanded the removal of then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from office. As with the Arab Spring, the Persian Spring was short-lived. It ended in a year, with leaders arrested and people cowed back indoors.
However, the events of the past two months are in certain respects unprecedented and are making many observers wonder whether this time events might play out differently and the protests could be the beginning of the end of Iran’s theocratic regime.
It is certainly too early to tell. There are similarities and differences with the 2009 movement. Unlike 2009, Iran is rocked by a seemingly leaderless protest. No leading figure has emerged yet and there is no glimpse of a political agenda other than generic calls for change and human rights. None of the economic chants from the most recent rounds of demonstrations are being heard this time. The absence of a leader or leaders makes it more difficult for the regime to decapitate the movement, but it also makes it more difficult for the movement to articulate clear political demands.
Now, as then, demonstrations are concentrated in urban areas and attract mostly middle- and upper-class protesters, whereas the Islamic revolutionaries of 1979 could rely on the network of mosques and the clergy inside the country that gathered strength in rural areas before moving on to sweep cities.
What is different from the past is the significant involvement of women. The spark that ignited current protests was the death of a young woman for inadvertently defying the strict morality laws that have suffocated women in Iran for more than 40 years. The 1979 Islamic revolution was a major setback for women’s rights. At the time, many – but, by no means, all or even most – women enjoyed freedoms comparable to those enjoyed by women in the West. In many ways, they have been the main victims of the oppressive regime that has ruled the country. Whether the involvement in protest of tens of thousands of women, mostly young, will be enough to tip the scales, remains to be seen, but it is certainly not usual for anti-government protests in Islamic countries to have such a marked “feminist” connotation.
The Iranian regime is traditionally paranoid, particularly about ethnic minorities in peripheral regions, and it is internationally beleaguered. Some of the most violent protests so far have taken place in the Sistan-Baluchistan province, neighboring Pakistan. The death of Amini, a Kurd, laid bare the Kurds’ long-standing gripes about being treated as second-class citizens in Iran. In recent weeks, Iran has launched attacks against the Kurds in neighboring Iraq. Arab-populated provinces in the country’s West have seen protests emerge regularly over social or environmental issues and might join protests soon. Arab countries would be thrilled to see Iran weakened. There is certainly an overstock of weapons in the region that could be smuggled across Iran’s porous border to fuel an armed resistance. However, the perspective of Iran descending into a civil war is something to fear instead of being celebrated, as the 10 years and counting Syrian civil war testifies.
In the end, one has to hope that the protest will force the regime to transform itself and gradually liberalize, but, as Venezuela, Cuba, Belarus, Russia, China and many more have shown, well organized and entrenched regimes can resist and withstand millions marching and asking for change, not just for months but for decades. If there is one lesson we should have learned from the Cold War, it is that regime change is never easy nor fast. It is only by continuing to offer an alternative to dictatorship and autocracy, by showing that a society based on true democracy, rule of law, and human rights is possible, that we can hasten their demise.
On Oct. 31, 2022, and Nov. 9, 2022, Loyola Marymount University held listening sessions with students, faculty and staff, to be in community with one another to share updates on university support related to the ongoing situation in Iran. These listening sessions were an opportunity for the LMU community to share thoughts, feelings, and information. The university also provides resources and services to support and assist our community:
- Student Health Services – 310.338.2881 (students)
- Community of Care – communityofcare@lmu.edu (students)
- Campus Ministry – ministry@lmu.edu (students)
- Office for International Students and Scholars – OISS@lmu.edu (students)
- Campus Safety – 310.338.2893
- Student Psychological Services – 310.338.2868 (students)
- Center for Ignatian Spirituality – ignacio@lmu.edu (faculty and staff)
- Employee Assistance Program – (faculty and staff)
- Human Resources – hr@lmu.edu (faculty and staff)