Even before the start of the campaign season, it was known that the 2022 race for Los Angeles mayor would be special. Because of term limits, there would be no incumbent. Mayor Eric Garcetti served two terms: his first term was four years long, but his second term was five-and-a-half. The additional time was added when Los Angeles voters changed the City Charter to move municipal elections from odd years to even years to align with federal and state elections. This move would increase the number of voters who would vote in local races. (Full disclosure, I was president of the Electoral Reform Commission that recommended the change for new election dates.)
Los Angeles was also scheduled to implement universal vote-by-mail ballots to all registered voters in the city. Responses to the COVID-19 pandemic fast-tracked this implementation for the entire state of California in the 2020 election. New candidates, new dates, and a new system of voting would change the landscape for the mayoral election in 2022. It has also affected the way polling data can be collected and analyzed.
Even before the start of the campaign season, it was known that the 2022 race for Los Angeles mayor would be special.
City elections in Los Angeles, as in most cities, are usually dominated by discussions of public safety and land use decisions. The federal and state governments allow cities to control these two issue areas. Thus, crime and land development usually take center stage in local elections. In addition to the two traditional issues, COVID-19 recovery and homelessness were projected to dominate local campaigns for mayor and city council.
By the mid-February deadline, 27 individuals had filed an intent to run for mayor. Ultimately, less than half would make the ballot for the June 7 primary. The field of 12 candidates was diverse in experience, gender, geography, race, and ethnicity. Most of Los Angeles was reflected in the candidates.
The first primary debate, held at LMU on Feb. 22, 2022, and sponsored by StudyLA, was broadcast live by Spectrum News 1. Rep. Karen Bass, Councilman Kevin de Leon, Councilman Joe Buscaino, City Attorney Mike Feuer, and businessman Mel Wilson took the stage to debate the big issues facing Angelenos. Businessman Rick Caruso entered the race days prior, and he was invited to participate, but he did not make his debate debut until the following month. Activists from the People’s City Council and other progressive organizations felt they and their issues were not presented in the debate. Their tactic to disrupt continued at other debates and community forums as well. As a result, debates in the general election were closed to the general public.
Caruso dominated the airwaves throughout the primary. Before he officially entered the race, voter surveys had him at 6% of the voters supporting him for mayor. After spending a record $40 million in the primary, he came in second place with 36% of the vote; a seven-point margin to Bass’ 43%.
In previous elections, mayoral candidates had less than three months to campaign between the primary election and the general election. This time, Bass and Caruso took a step back during the lull of the summer months before kicking things off again after Labor Day. Voter polls showed Bass increasing her lead from the 7% advantage in the primary results to 12% advantage in August. However, as many expected, the race began to tighten as Caruso unleashed his funds; Caruso will break all records for spending in a local race in California. At time of publication for this article, Caruso has reached $100 million in campaign spending. Only Michael Bloomberg, who served as mayor of New York, spent slightly more money for a local race in U.S. political history than Caruso.
As we approach the final week of the election, several polls indicate the race is a statistical tie, though usually with Bass in the lead. Who will win and why is always difficult to predict. The winner of an election will always claim a mandate for their platform. It is difficult to discern the intent of the voters. That is, unless you ask them. It has been a tradition that LMU has conducted an exit poll in elections for mayor of Los Angeles. In the last two competitive elections, 2013 when Eric Garcetti beat Wendy Greuel and 2005 when Antonio Villaraigosa beat incumbent James Hahn, LMU conducted exit polls. In all, LMU has conducted 17 exit polls, all with results closely mirroring the official tally. LMU has conducted the largest per capita exit polls in the nation with great accuracy and with significant involvement of LMU students.
Exit polls are different from pre-election polls. Unlike pre-election polls, usually via phone or online, which ask the individual’s intent, exit polls ask individuals as they are leaving the voting locations what they actually just did. This allows for greater accuracy. The results not only allow us to project the winner almost immediately after the polls close, but, more importantly, why a particular candidate won, who supported the candidate, and what they expect of that individual in office.
As we approach the final week of the election, several polls indicate the race is a statistical tie, though usually with Bass in the lead.
The very reforms that make the 2022 L.A. mayor’s race different, however, have impacted the ability to conduct a traditional exit poll. To survey voters we must go where the voters’ vote. In the June primary, voters did not go to the polls, they mostly voted by mail. Only 10% of Los Angeles voters went to the polls on Election Day, and another 5% voted early in person. A whopping 85% voted by mail; either dropping their ballot in the mailbox, an official election drop box, or taking it in person to a vote center early or on Election Day. We can no longer have hundreds of LMU students at randomly selected polling locations, randomly selecting voters as they leave the polls. That would only capture 10% of the voters.
In this new electoral environment, LMU has developed a new exit poll methodology. This includes tracking the number of submitted mail-in ballots and randomly selecting those individuals to answer our exit poll via phone or online. In addition, StudyLA will have some students at selected voting locations to supplement this work and do the traditional method to cover those 10% that still vote the traditional manner.
Why are we doing this at StudyLA? To provide our students research opportunities in real time, with real politics and real policy impact. Further, the collected data informs the newly elected mayor why voters actually supported them and what they expect from the new regime.
