The Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University announced the initial results from its 2008 Presidential Primary Exit Poll tonight.
As of 8:15 p.m., 1,200 randomly and ethnically represented residents in the city of Los Angeles who voted at the polls, completed anonymous self-administered surveys (with a margin of error +/- 3 percent) in 50 precincts. Nearly 200 LMU students distributed and collected exit poll surveys in 50 precincts and input data for data analyses. The Los Angeles Votes for President: Exit Polls of the 2008 Presidential Primary and General Election in the City of Los Angeles was funded by a research grant provided by The John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation.
“Los Angeles had a fabulous turn out for the primary election,” said Fernando Guerra, director for The Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles. “The role of the independents made the difference between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. The race was close for Obama because of independents, late-deciders and African Americans.”
This effort is part of The Leavey Center’s longitudinal effort to implement new sampling methodology called the “racially stratified homogenous precinct approach.” This new method addresses limitations in standard exit poll sampling that typically has not provided accurate sampling of ethnic groups in urban settings. The 2008 Leavey Center Presidential Primary Exit Poll is designed to study the relationships between voting preferences, ethnic relations, policy preferences, community attitudes, government and community action, and quality of life; and investigate the effects of precinct qualities on voting patterns.
The Leavey Center conducted similar exit polls and studies of precinct quality in 2003-2005.
The 2008 Leavey Center Presidential Primary Exit Poll was conducted by Co-Principal Investigators: Fernando Guerra, Ph.D., director of the Leavey Center and associate professor at Loyola Marymount University; Jennifer Magnabosco, Ph.D., Leavey Center associate director and senior research associate; Mara Marks, Ph.D., LMU assistant professor and Leavey Center senior research fellow; and Stephen Nuno, M.A., A.B.D., Leavey Center research associate. Faculty Collaborators include: Lance Blakesley, Ph.D., LMU professor, political science; Robert Singleton, Ph.D., LMU associate professor, economics; Richard Fox, Ph.D., LMU associate professor, political science; Matt Barreto, Ph.D., University of Washington assistant professor, political science and Leavey Center research scholar; Collaborator Nathan Woods, Ph.D., director, Welch Consulting and Leavey Center research scholar.